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Despite being the same frequency and 2.1 miles apart, $68B/annum in power is inextricably linked to the perception that capital-intensive energy industries are (a) a necessary evil and (b) a bad business. For a surprising number of the folks who occupy the highest levels of our government, those two thoughts are naturally linked.
According to the “State of Independent Power” report that a distribution utility in Western Pennsylvania commissioned (APPA, 2004), the electricity market is poised to grow from some $52 billion/year in 2007 to $160 billion/year by 2027. That’s a 139% increase. Today (note the headline in this morning’s NYT) there’s a boom in the shale gas industry and the Pennsylvania Independent Power Association (PAIPA) speculates that 70% of the new electricity market could come from gas. This has a couple of implications.
First, it means that Pennsylvania has a natural “spare capacity” opportunity: If Pennsylvania is able to do some of the same “cheap energy” infrastructure work that Oklahoma has done to get shale gas production going, the gas industry could drive over 20% of the new market in the next decade or so.
Second, this means that there’s a huge opportunity for project developers to take advantage of the increased demand. In Pennsylvania, the Peak Oil/Peak Natural Gas debates are still raging. Whether you believe that either peak can be met by physical means or whether it is merely a function of policy and price (infrastructure-based) is largely a matter of taste. Whether the industry questions the validity of the Peak argument is also largely a matter of taste. Nevertheless, it is true that energy resources are finite and (all else being equal) the more supply that is in the system, the greater the opportunity for price to impact demand. This means that the “discovery” of shale gas reserves, for example, could have a measurable impact on both price and demand.
The report makes a good argument that there’s a natural fit between utilities, independent power producers and value
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